From Manual to Intelligent Forecasting
How a European retail distributor with over 2,000 stores and €9B in revenue achieved 90%+ Intelligent Forecasting with 95% reliability.
2000+
SUPERMARKETS
150K+
SKUS
900+
SUPPLIERS
€9B
REVENUE SCALE
THE CHALLENGE
A puzzle the size of the grocery market
Supplier pricing is critical for healthy margins but forecasting it across multiple conditions, members, and suppliers was a deeply manual, high-stakes process.
Three condition levels
Item, group, and supplier each with its own logic and dependencies.
Three pricing schemes
Pricing, lump sum, and growth pricing every scheme demanded custom calculations.
Endless variants
Different condition programs and member variants compounded the complexity.
GOAL ACHIEVED
≥90% auto forecasting with 95% reliability
THE JOURNEY
From manual forecasting to
AI confidence
Bring Data to the Core
PHASE 1 · FOUNDATION
Intellerts decoded the distributor’s intricate pricing system its condition logic and calculation rules building a Proof of Concept that proved an ML-enhanced model could outperform manual processes.
- Recreate and respect existing rules
- Absorb market dynamics
- Deliver explainable forecasts
- Improve forecasting accuracy
- Project multi-month horizons
BI BY BUSINESS
PHASE 2 · ENABLEMENT
The validated model became operational embedded in the weekly cadence of the business and integrated directly into the existing BI suite.
- Weekly rolling forecasts
- Automatic historical updates
- On-demand run capability
- Dynamic recalculation of conditions
- Native Qlik integration
- ISO-aligned controls
AI to Advance
PHASE 3 · EXCELLENCE
Forecasting became accurate, timely, and explainable turning a static snapshot into a dynamic cash cycle instrument and a foundation for future AI cases.
- Early warning on missed thresholds
- Improved financial planning & accruals
- Better supplier negotiation leverage
- Insights to adjust ordering & promotion timing
TECHNOLOGY & OPERATING MODEL
A pragmatic operating model that blends automation, governance, and explainability engineered to scale.
Azure Data Factory
Weekly ingestion of purchase, invoice, condition, member, and ground-component data.
Azure SQL Database
Central, secure storage for raw data, model features, and final predictions the integration point to Qlik.
Azure Machine Learning
Automated feature prep, model training, evaluation & ranking, and prediction generation.
Azure DevOps Pipelines
CI/CD for data transformations and ML pipelines, with controlled promotion to production.
AKS / ACI
Real-time and batch prediction compute on-demand model execution at the click of a button.
Azure Monitor
Data freshness, pipeline reliability, cost & performance, and full traceability.
Qlik View / Sense
Weekly and monthly pricing outlook dashboards consumed by business teams.
Governance & Controls
Anomaly detection, model & dataset versioning, ISO-aligned audit trails.
Forecast Run Cycle
Weekly automated runs plus on-demand 'Run now' capability — always on the latest data.
Human in the Loop
Controllers can override, annotate, or compare scenarios — ML augments expertise, not replaces it.
Continuous Learning
Retraining windows, drift monitoring, and recalibration after holidays, promotions, and rollouts.
CLIENT VOICES
For years, pricing forecasting required enormous effort and deep manual expertise. Intellerts helped us translate that expertise into a scalable forecasting engine. For the first time, we have clear, explainable visibility into our pricing outlook weeks and months ahead.
— PROJECT LEAD
The impact is real. Our members rely on accurate pricing forecasts to plan their financials and negotiate with suppliers. Intellerts’ solution improved accuracy, reduced manual workload, and gave us a modern platform to build on.
— EXECUTIVE SPONSOR
What I appreciate most is that the new solution integrates seamlessly with our existing BI environment. The intelligence now appears directly in Qlik, reliable, automated, and always up-to-date.
— BI MANAGER
The Azure implementation is secure, scalable, and fully aligned with our IT strategy. Intellerts supported us through the transition and ensured we kept running the forecasting process without interruption.
— IT MANAGER
Start Your AI Retail Transformation
Whether your goal is to optimize your supply chain, reduce inventory, grow revenue, or personalize your customer experience, Intellerts helps you design, build, and scale AI solutions tailored to your retail challenges.
Let’s build the future of retail together.
